This topic is a topic in the project “Sixth pole environmental change and green silk road construction” special project “Western wind and monsoon interaction and water resources change” (6). Climate and water resources change is an important research content of the project (6), and it is one of the core issues of concern to the countries in Southeast Asia. It is also a hot issue of international scholars. Southeast Asia includes many countries along the “One Belt, One Road” strategy along the route. Scientific and comprehensive understanding of the climate, water resources and ecological environment systems in the region, especially in the context of climate change and the impact of human activities, to ensure the water resources and ecological security of the region, to achieve sustainable development of regional countries, and to ensure The “One Way” strategy benefits countries along the route to play a vital role.

     The study of the fine simulation and evolution of climate change in the pan-third pole and Southeast Asia is an important basis for uncovering the spatial and temporal evolution mechanism of water resources in the region. It is also an important basis for exploring the spatial and temporal distribution and change of water resources in the future and nature-humanities. The spatial and temporal evolution of water resources under coupled systems is a concentrated expression of climate change and human activities, and is also the main reference for formulating scientific and rational regional water resources development and protection policies. The two complement each other and rely on each other.

      This topic is based on other topics (such as "Westerly and monsoon interaction and water vapor transport process", "Asian water tower changes and their impact", "Central Asia Great Lakes water-ecological system interaction and collaborative management"), combined with Southeast Asia. The region, the deep analysis and in-depth study of the climate and water resources most concerned about the project and the ecological environment effect of water resources utilization, has an important and irreplaceable position at the project level, and the research results can directly serve the green “One Belt and One Road”. The country needs to build a major demand. Therefore, it is very necessary to carry out research work on this topic.

      In 2018, the main tasks, detailed work plans and task decomposition plans for the implementation of the project; organization and coordination of field research and research in the study area, water samples and soil samples collected at specific locations; collection of research areas for remote sensing, hydrology, meteorology, socio-economic and other foundations Data, establish a data sharing mechanism within the project, carry out database construction; pre-process data collection and carry out remote sensing interpretation; carry out regional climate model installation and commissioning; and build a socio-economic development path based on IPCC to develop economic and social development scenarios in Southeast Asia.

      In 2019, we will further carry out research on field investigations in the study area, continue to collect relevant basic data, and sample the second-year planning locations; further improve the construction of the basic database and realize database sharing between topics: Carry out research on the co-evolution mechanism of water-society-ecosystem, and provide the basis for the development of natural-human-coupling hydrological model model; use multi-source satellite data combined with digital interpretation technology to extract the basic information of the underlying surface to provide basic information of the underlying surface for the hydrological model; Conduct groundwater recharge mechanism analysis and surface water-groundwater coupling research to provide theoretical methods for surface water ground coupling in hydrological models; nested dynamic downscaling of research areas; key technical discussions for first-year and second-year research work And plan a follow-up research plan.

      In 2020, based on the GEPIC model, the water-society-ecosystem co-evolution module and the surface water-groundwater coupling module will be developed to develop a new generation of natural-human-complex system hydrological model; using the collected observation data combined with remote sensing products for a new generation of high precision. The distributed model is used to determine and verify the Mekong River basin scale and the five countries in Southeast Asia. It simulates the basic hydrological elements of the five Southeast Asian countries and the Mekong River Basin, and analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of water resources based on the results of hydrological and water resources simulation data; using key factor identification techniques and attribution methods. The method analyzes the natural and human-driven mechanism of water-time change in water resources. On the basis of historical simulation of hydrology and water resources, the multi-model collection method is used to construct the future water resources estimation system and carry out future water resources simulation.

      Research on climate change and global climate change in the pan third pole and Southeast Asian countries in 2021; establishing statistical relationships between large-scale circulation, global climate change, and temporal and spatial changes in the climate of the third and Southeast Asian countries; combining CMIP5/6, CORDEX, and the scaled-down climate projection generated by the project will be refined and integrated into the climate of the third-polar region; combined with the system dynamics to develop the water resources utilization module under the socio-economic system, providing the basis for the natural-human-complex system water resource model. On the basis of the hydrological model of the human complex system, the module for water resources development and utilization is coupled to construct a water resource model of the natural-human-composite system; the future social development scenario is constructed, and the uncertainty of future scenarios of water resources is analyzed based on the multi-model set estimation; Study regional water resources simulation data to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of water resources utilization under social and economic activities; combined with surface groundwater samples and soil sample analysis and test results, carry out research on high arsenic groundwater migration mechanism and analyze the ecological effects of high arsenic groundwater.

      In 2022, different natural and humanistic scenarios will be set up; high-resolution climate change scenarios will be generated; a high-arsenic groundwater migration mechanism will be combined to construct a high-arsenic groundwater logistic regression prediction model; combined with a high-arsenic groundwater prediction model to predict future high-arsenic groundwater development. The ecological effects of the use; identify the natural variability of climate and the impact of human activities on water cycle and water resources, and quantify their relative contributions; combined with hydrological and water resources analysis, water use and ecological effects, comprehensive assessment of natural-human complex systems under Southeast Asia water Resources; write "South Asia Water Resources and Ecological Impact Assessment Report".